Economy faces slowdown in growth

Investors looking for action to buttress market confidence

The Chinese stock markets reacted impatiently after the Dragon Boat Festival (June 10 through June 12) to changes in the outside world or, to put it another way, a lack of changes inside the country.

Many business figures are weak, although officials say things are under control and the figures don't suggest immediate danger. But word abounds in Beijing that such and such a government agency will soon (at various points within the year) roll out a new reform program. This in itself reflects officials' understanding that the economy cannot proceed as it is. Something has to be done soon to buttress the market's confidence.

It is not a matter of to do or not to do, but what to do. Both inside and outside China, investors are whispering about what will be the next move Beijing will make.

Before the answer becomes clear, it looks likely the markets will continue to hover around a low level, say between 2100 and 2300 on the Shanghai Composite Index.

Of course, changes don't usually happen as fast as people wish. One has a good reason to argue that more patience is needed, considering the fact that China's new cabinet was formed only three months ago and that reform initiatives have been sparse as the economy rode comfortably on the crest of globalization in the previous decade.

But this is precisely why investors are expecting some new impetus. One of the problems with China's past export-led and foreign direct investment-powered growth model was to encourage its players to assume they just had to invest more money and produce more goods to become a world-level strong economy.

At one time, the belief that China had (or its residents had) money and could do anything was unbiquitous, particularly in the heyday of the previous cabinet's 4 trillion yuan ($653 billion, 487 billion euros) stimulus program, mainly using state-owned enterprises to support the economy's growth rate when the United States and Europe were in financial crisis.

Now the pendulum is moving in the other direction. As the US economy is showing some signs of recovery and the Federal Reserve is likely to fold its easy credit program, China will be faced by not just a slowdown in growth, but possibly a more complicated situation.

International hot money, once flowing into China to benefit from the rising value of the yuan, will be directed to higher returns in other markets.

Wealthy Chinese may also want to jump on the bandwagon. The patience of portfolio investors could run out with the up-to-now piecemeal regulatory reform of the domestic stock markets.

Long-term capital commitments, in terms of FDI and direct investment from domestic companies, could find the country no longer as attractive as it once was with its abundant supply of inexpensive labor and a rapidly growing retail industry.

Large amounts of money will be needed for urbanization and various social programs.

More seriously, debt has witnessed an unprecedented rise, incurred by both local governments, with their ambitious but not necessarily well-managed and productive public building projects, and by corporate and private borrowers.

These factors combined will create a huge drain on capital and credit-worthiness backed by good assets. At this point, it is useless to talk about possible market index scenarios, or to speculate whether the country will be able to keep its annual GDP growth above 7 percent, or to dwell on the price tag of each of the above items.

The author is editor-at-large of China Daily. Contact the writer at edzhang@chinadaily.com.cn.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 06/21/2013 page13)