Israel conducts pre-dawn airstrikes on Iranian targets in latest round of open confrontation

FULL-SCALE WAR UNLIKELY FOR NOW

The latest round of attacks was widely anticipated after Iran fired approximately 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1, which killed one person in the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed that Tehran would "pay the price" for the missile attack.

Following the attacks on Saturday, analysts believe that the multi-year conflict between Israel and Iran is entering a new, more dangerous phase. However, Israel's latest "moderate" military action suggests that neither side is inclined to escalate the situation further, making a full-scale war unlikely, at least for now.

Before its airstrikes, Israel sent a message to Iran on Friday through several third parties, the Jerusalem Post quoted sources as saying. "The Israelis made it clear to the Iranians what they intended to target and what they would not."

"Tehran is downplaying it -- even mocking it -- which may be more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran," wrote Trita Parsi, the executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute in the United States, in a post on the social media platform X.

"But if Iran chooses to exercise restraint, as it did after Israel's limited strikes in April, then this chapter may be closed, yet the conflict will remain very much alive. As long as Israel's slaughter in Gaza and Lebanon continues, a new exchange of fire between Israel and Iran will only be a question of time. And the next round will likely be more ferocious than the previous, just as this round was larger than the exchange in April," he noted.

According to Seyed Reza Sadr al-Hosseini, a senior expert on West Asian issues based in Tehran, Iran has made all necessary preparations for a potential Israeli attack, focusing on both non-military and passive defenses, as well as active military defense.

All Iranian military and defense complexes are fully prepared, and the country's armed forces have reinforced air defense in key and strategic regions, he said.