De-risking: No different from persuading others to take off coats in freezing weather

Some Western countries have been clamoring for "de-risking" in recent years. They believe the increasing interdependence among nations that comes along with deepening globalization poses certain "risks", making countries vulnerable.

Consequently, there has been a growing call for decoupling and cutting off industrial and supply chains, as if breaking these links would render nations more independent, and free from the influence of other countries.

At first glance, these arguments may seem somewhat reasonable. It is true countries deeply integrated into the globalized economy often find it challenging to remain immune to global shocks like the 2008 global financial crisis. But upon closer examination, it becomes evident that these arguments are quite impractical for Global South countries. Looking back, globalization has not exposed countries to vulnerabilities but rather presented them with opportunities for modernization.

In the aftermath of World War II, European countries overcame stagnation and prospered by establishing a common market where countries rely on each other, which evolved to today's European Union. Riding the wave of globalization, Global South countries have participated in global supply chains, and achieved rapid economic growth through exports and foreign investment.

Today's globalization goes beyond the economic scope and becomes part of our everyday life. Decoupling and breaking supply chains equates to relinquishing the modern lifestyle and growth drivers brought about by globalization, something the Global South countries cannot afford to do.

It is worth noting that interdependence is not equal to vulnerability, but brings stability and a shared future. Proponents of "decoupling" overlook a crucial fact – dependency is mutual. While one country may depend on another's goods and technology, the latter may also depend on the former's market and supply chains. Although there are concerns that dependence on some critical resources might be turned into weaknesses in international politics, evidence shows that international cooperation is something mutually beneficial rather than a tool used by one side to control another.

For example, while importing countries depend on exporting countries' goods such as petroleum, exporting countries similarly depend on importing countries' markets. Interdependence makes the cost of conflict higher.

Just as economist Thomas I Friedman argued, no two countries that both have a McDonald's have ever fought a war against each other. When economic ties between nations are strong, cooperation usually proves more beneficial than conflict. When more countries choose to resolve differences through cooperation, it becomes easier to avoid conflicts and jointly address challenges.

Western countries did not come up with the idea of "de-risking" out of nowhere – it stems from their own economic and security concerns, or rather, anxieties. But what's most problematic is that they ignore the situation on the ground and realities of most countries in the world.

Currently, many Global South countries are still in the process of industrialization and therefore urgently need external markets, technology transfer, and foreign investment to drive economic growth and structural transformation. De-risking may exacerbate these countries' economic vulnerabilities and make it even more difficult for them to integrate into the global economy. Moreover, stability comes from development. Only when basic needs are met can conflicts be reduced, and countries have a stable foundation for sustainable development.

Many proposals put forward by Western countries may sound feasible, but fail to take into account the real needs and conditions of the Global South countries. They presented these proposals out of their own interests, while ignoring the stark differences between developed and developing countries in terms of economic system, resource endowment, development path, and stage of development.

Global South countries have their own development paths and should advance modernization in a phased manner according to their own realities. They should not blindly follow Western countries' footsteps, nor should they pay for the "expensive ideals" or untenable arguments of Western countries at the cost of their own development.

In a deeply interconnected world, vulnerability and stability are usually two sides of the same coin. The solution to reducing vulnerability is not to sever all ties, but to establish stronger and more resilient global cooperation mechanisms, so that we can collectively face and defuse risks. Only by seeking strength through unity can the Global South have the confidence and capability to cope with instability and uncertainty of the world.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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