The worst may still be ahead in conflict between Russia, Ukraine

The recent direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkiye, had initially rekindled hopes for a ceasefire, leading to lasting peace after more than three years of conflict. But the latest developments, with various parties involved, show it is not the case.

US President Donald Trump talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the phone on Wednesday. Later, Trump wrote on social media that "We discussed the attack on Russia's docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides."

He added that "it was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields".

The fact that Trump did not say that he had tried to prevent further escalation showed that he was quite upset with the latest hostilities, especially Ukraine's attack on Russia's airfields of strategic bombers, an attack that prompted many, including Keith Kellogg, US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, to voice concerns.

Many people expect Russia to respond strongly. And fresh escalation in the fighting would dim the hope of a ceasefire anytime soon, not to mention that the conditions laid out by both sides in Istanbul earlier this week were far apart.

Europeans have been beefing up their military, at least rhetorically. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Monday that he is putting the United Kingdom's military on "war-fighting readiness" to minimize the "threat" posed by Russia. He also said the UK will build as many as a dozen new nuclear-powered attack submarines.

As for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Berlin will help Kyiv make long-range missiles. So far, Germany has not provided Ukraine with Taurus missiles, which have a range of 500 kilometers.

And Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday that defense spending will be Denmark's "number one" priority, adding that if Europe fails to re-arm itself, "then it's game over".

On the other hand, the European Commission told European Union member states this week that the hundreds of billions of euros in COVID-19 relief money can now be used for defense projects.

The anxiety of EU leaders is understandable. They have long depended, and excessively at that, on the US for security, but now the Trump administration might stop supplying arms to Ukraine and even demand the EU to take care of its own security from now.

While European NATO members pledged more military support for Ukraine at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on Wednesday, the absence of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the meeting was a reflection of the US' new approach to help end the conflict. And without US military support, the prospects of Ukraine gaining advantage over Russia on the battlefield with only European support is seen by many as unlikely.

Yet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen found an ally in hawkish US Senator Lindsey Graham. She said the EU is ready to team up with the US to impose simultaneous sanctions on Russia. But a commission spokesperson quickly clarified that von der Leyen does not mean the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia will impose 500 percent tariff on goods imported from countries that still buy Russian fossil fuels as threatened by Graham.

In fact, the EU itself has remained a major buyer of Russian energy, although the purchase has often been covert these days. The latest talks on more military aid to Ukraine and more spending on European countries' military and more war readiness could indeed become a self-fulfilled prophecy, prolonging the conflict and raising the risk of a wider war and even a nuclear war.

This is especially worrisome, because European leaders show no or little wisdom and courage toward a compromise that would lead to a ceasefire and lasting peace.

The author is chief of China Daily EU Bureau based in Brussels.

chenweihua@chinadaily.com.cn