Decoding China's economic solidity in 2025

Despite the headwinds facing the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its global growth forecast for 2025, including a notable upward revision for China.

Indeed, China's economic performance in the first half of this year exceeded expectations: Its GDP grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year — 0.3 percentage points faster than the 2024 pace. Key economic indicators remained stable: unemployment and prices held steady, high-tech output jumped by 9.5 percent, and consumption contributed 52 percent of growth.

Given the challenging external conditions, what explains the resilience of the Chinese economy? The following three reasons deserve closer examination:

New-quality productive forces: underpinning industrial upgrading

China's sustained efforts to boost innovation and develop new-quality productive forces are paying off. In the first half of 2025, value-added output in high-tech industries grew by 9.5 percent, accounting for nearly a quarter of large-scale industrial expansion. High-tech goods exports increased by 9.2 percent, while cross-border e-commerce reached RMB 1.32 trillion yuan (up 5.7 percent) and total services trade hit RMB 3.89 trillion yuan (up 8.0 percent). These developments highlight innovation as the primary driver of China's economic growth and export diversification.

Stronger domestic demand: tapping internal source of growth

China has been strengthening home-grown drivers of growth, particularly by shifting toward consumption-led expansion. Its RMB 69 billion yuan (about US$9.5 billion) trade-in subsidy program for home appliances and electronics has generated RMB 2.9 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting some 400 million consumers. The monthly RMB 300-yuan childcare allowances and support for eldercare, tourism and household services have helped push service spending up by an annual average of 9.6 percent. As a result, domestic demand accounted for 68.8 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with final consumer spending alone contributing 52 percent—outperforming net exports.

Reform dividends: improving the business environment

China has placed greater emphasis on supporting the private sector: In May 2025, the Private Economy Promotion Law—China's first basic statute dedicated to private business—took effect, establishing clear rules for fair competition, easier investment and stronger innovation support.

In February, the government introduced "20 Measures to Stabilize Foreign Investment" to encourage and support foreign-invested companies in China.

In March, the People's Bank of China, together with the new National Financial Regulatory Administration and the securities regulator, rolled out 25 financial measures for the private sector, encouraging banks to increase lending and underwrite more bonds for privately owned firms. Major banks such as ICBC pledged at least RMB 6 trillion yuan (about US$830 billion) in new credit over the next three years.

Since June, regulators have raised first-loan ceilings to RMB 50 million yuan for private companies, eased bad-loan tolerances, and expanded state guarantees.

In August, new guidelines were launched that created a "green channel" to fast-track approvals for key private firms in strategic sectors like semiconductors and advanced materials, streamlining listings, mergers and acquisitions, and bond approvals.

These reforms have boosted private sector activity: In the first half of 2025, private industrial output rose by 6.7 percent year-on-year, private investment (excluding real estate) grew by 5.1 percent, and hospitality and infrastructure sectors saw growth exceeding 9 percent, indicating a notable uptick in the growth momentum of the private sector. During the first six months of this year, more than 30,000 new foreign-invested companies were set up, 11.7 percent more than the same period of last year; actual investment in China from Switzerland, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and South Korea rose by 68.6 percent, 59.1 percent, 37.6 percent, 6.3 percent, and 2.7 percent, respectively, demonstrating China's continued appeal for foreign companies.

The Chinese economy's resilience and potential have gained recognition from the international business community. Edinburgh-based asset manager Baillie Gifford, which oversees about ￡210 billion, recently published a number of reports highlighting why China remains attractive to global investors. As the firm noted, the key question is "whether fear of China's challenges should be balanced against the fear of missing out on the long-term opportunities it offers."

The author is an observer of international affairs. The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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