Face up to China-US tensions with a bird’s-eye view

The recent bilateral trade friction is just a prelude of a turning-point for the Sino-American strategic relationship that may dominate the international community of major powers in the first half of the 21st century.

The diversion of trajectory is based on the radical transformation of power comparison, especially during the past two decades. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has been on the fast track and its GDP in 2017 reached 12.25 trillion dollars, nearly 11 times its size (1.34 trillion dollars in 2001) when it joined the multilateral trade organization. The size of China is now about 63.1 percent of the US’s from 12.61 percent back in 2001.

Moreover, according to the prediction of the World Bank, China will outpace the US as the largest economy measured by GDP in about 2020. That probably will become truth given the tremendous gap of population the two countries now have. China has more than quadruple the number of citizens that the US does.

Therefore, the so-called “trade war” indeed is a lucid refection of the discontent and anxiety from the US towards current ties between Washington and Beijing. And those sentiments have an influence from Capitol Hill to Wall Street, especially in the run-down cities of the US Rust Belt.

Donald Trump, a personnalité president, just shot the starting pistol of this comprehensive, fierce and frenemy-style race by inking a file to start a possible tariff penalty against China’s exports to the US.

Thucydides' Trap, which demonstrates the conflict and competition of two major powers, is still valid and could usher the two battleships as a beacon out of the reefs up ahead. This theory is worth a read-over and it’s too early to proclaim its decease. On the contrary, we need to scrutinize the historical rules out of this theory - thus we could find a gateway to avoid the trap.

However, we don’t say the Sino-US relationship will fall into a zero-sum outcome as a disciple of historicism. History does not repeat itself. Furthermore, we could gain so much leverage today, such as a nuclear balance to deter possible hot wars between giant powers and the economic integration and dependence of China and the US stemming from the development of globalziation won’t find any parallel in history.

China, from its moderate anti-sanction list against US exports, is believed to be avoiding escalation of this conflict and hopes to ease it by negotiation.

For President Trump, we also can’t see any profit he can gain from an all-round confrontation, not to mention the backyard fire he is facing in the Cambridge Analytica scandal and lawsuits regarding sexual affairs. The margins he could get from China would please his voters and thus resist the pressure from the forces inside the US against him.

The ideal analogy of China and the US is like a couple and pessimistic historicism won’t cast any light on the current bilateral ties. The effort should be never left behind when we expect a reasonable competitive but reciprocal frenemy race.

The author is an associate researcher with CCG, a Beijing-based independent think tank. This story reflects the opinions of the author. He can be reached at nieligao@ccg.org.cn.