Crisis, challenge and chance

"The cause of the crisis may not be just the DPRK alone. The responses of other countries could also contribute to the crisis," I replied.

"What about the timing? Is this to influence the elections in the Republic of Korea?" he said, which is a question that probably many share.

"No, I do not believe so," I said. "The DPRK should know that the impact of the rocket would be only marginal on the ROK elections. If anything, it may reflect favorably on the conservatives whom it opposes unless it overreacts. Apart from serving its own agenda of weapons of mass destruction, it has an eye on the wider international context. I've noticed with interest a report in the DPRK media that a unicorn had been spotted somewhere in the country. Besides, so far the rocket business has not been mentioned in the DPRK domestic media."

"A unicorn! How incredible!" he responded.

"Yes, a unicorn. An auspicious herald of a new era in East Asian mythology. This is a time of change all around, within the DPRK too. The DPRK leaders might hope the successful launch of a rocket to signal a new era of better international environment for it."

"A better environment for them or for us?" my friend asked.

"For all of us, I hope. I wonder if the new leaderships in the countries neighboring the DPRK take the incident as a challenge, but also as a chance to create a better environment for all of us - with or without a unicorn. The rocket in this sense will be a test for the new leaderships that have the responsibility of managing the international environment for some time to come. China could take an initiative on this. Instead of rushing to the UN Security Council for more sanctions, or creating a new crisis, is there a meeting of the new leaders in sight? They could work on a pragmatic plan with which they can jointly persuade the DPRK that there are ways out of their present difficulties without having to resort to military means."

"Oh!" was the final expression of my friend.

I could not guess whether that response was meant to be positive or otherwise. But I really hope that more people in the region, like my friend, will see not only the crisis, but also the challenge and chance.

The author is Univrsity Distinguished Professor at Hanyang University in the ROK, and former ROK national security adviser, and former ROK ambassador to Japan and the United Kingdom.

(China Daily 12/10/2012 page9)